Historical Trends In Food Expenditure

Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

Introduction:

In this paper we discuss the historical trends in food expenditure and the nutrition levels of the food in the UK, our chosen time series data ranges from 1990 to the year 2000, data was retrieved from www.statistics.gov.uk , the data describes various foods and their expenditure level, also the nutrition level consumption over the years.

Data:

Data was retrieved from http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/ssdataset.asp?vlnk=3802&

Pos=2&ColRank=1&Rank=272 , expenditure data portrays the level of expenditure in cents per person in one week, the foods chosen include liquid milk, eggs, meat and meat products, potatoes, vegetables, fruits, cereals and beverages.the data ranges from 1990 to 2000 and the data is as follows:

Liquid whole milk

Eggs

Meat and Meat Products

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

Fresh potatoes

Total vegetables

Fresh fruit

cereals and cereal products

Beverages

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

1990

61.9

19.5

215.7

27.7

169.8

65.1

135.3

43.2

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

1991

58.5

20.1

215.2

28.1

181.0

70.2

146.6

45.9

1992

53.4

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

18.8

226.2

25.1

183.8

69.3

156.4

43.1

1993

48.7

17.7

242.7

23.3

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

185.3

66.8

161.2

41.8

1994

45.2

17.3

244.5

28.7

192.5

71.9

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

162.1

43.4

1995

42.3

17.4

254.5

38.4

215.2

75.9

175.7

44.7

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

1996

39.0

18.4

276.2

31.3

220.1

79.6

193.9

46.3

1997

36.0

17.7

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

284.2

25.6

214.4

87.0

197.2

44.2

1998

33.9

17.0

283.6

34.1

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

227.8

91.3

195.7

48.9

1999

30.6

17.0

276.8

33.3

233.9

93.4

199.5

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

42.3

2000

31.3

17.6

293.2

32.0

228.9

95.0

206.1

42.7

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

From the data it is clear that there has been a decline in expenditure of liquid milk over the tyears, another observation is that there has been an increase in expenditure of meat in that UK also an increase in expenditure of fresh fruits, cereals have also increased in their expenditure level, thios can be attributed to the increase or decline in the demand for each food stated above.

From the data it is also clear that there has been a change in the pattern of consumption of foods over the year, there has been a change in the expenditure level of different foods above and this portrays a change in the consumption pattern of consumers, for this reason therefore we can plot the data in a chart to check for the trends in the foods mentioned above.

From the chart it is clear that meat and meat products have the highest levels of expenditure and over the years there has been an increase in the expenditure level, beverages have the lowest expenditure levels are recorded with regard to beverages and their consumption have remained constant over the years.

Analysis of mean levels:

We sum up the total expenditures of our chosen foods, then get their means to check which food type contains more expenditure per week:

Liquid whole milk

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

Eggs

Meat and Meat Products

Fresh potatoes

Total vegetables

Fresh fruit

cereals and cereal products

Beverages

total

480.8

198.6

2812.6

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

327.6

2252.6

865.5

1929.7

486.4

mean

43.71

18.05

255.6936

29.77909

204.78091

78.67727

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

175.4236

44.217273

The mean levels of each food can be represented in a chart as follows:

The above chart shows the mean levels of expenditure for each food, higher means are evident in the meat and meat products while a lower mean is evident in the eggs expenditure levels over the tyears, for this reason therefore it is clear that between the year 19990 to 2000 higher expenditures were in the meat and meat products.

If we assume that only our chosen foods are available in the market and that the consumer consumes all the products, then the percentage mean expenditure levels will be as follows for the 11 years given that only the stated foods are in the consumer’s basket.

We now analyse the nutrition levels consumed in the year 1990 to 2000, this data was also retrieved from the http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/ssdataset.asp?vlnk=3802&Pos=2

&ColRank=1&Rank=272 , deptite having a larger sample size of nutrition type we will only consider a few nutrients, the table below shows our sample data used to analyse nutrition consumption in the UK. The data represents the nutrients consumed by a person per day:

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

Energy (kcal)

Protein

Fat

Carbohydrate

Fibre

Sodium

1990

1870

63.1

86

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

224

12.1

2.50

1991

1840

62.3

85

223

12.2

2.49

1992

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

1860

62.8

86

222

12.0

2.51

1993

1830

62.3

84

220

11.9

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

2.50

1994

1790

62.5

80

217

11.7

2.51

1995

1780

63.0

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

78

218

11.6

2.51

1996

1850

65.0

82

228

12.4

2.62

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

1997

1790

64.7

78

221

12.4

2.58

1998

1740

64.3

75

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

214

12.1

2.52

1999

1690

63.2

72

211

11.9

2.49

2000

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

1750

66.3

74

218.0

12.6

3.0

From the above table it is clear that there has been an increase in the intake of protein, fibre and sodium and a decline in all the other products, the trends of consumption per person can be represented in a chart as follows:

Fat consumption has declined over the years, this can be attributed to the increased awareness of fat related diseases over the years, protein levels have slightly increased over the years and the consumption of fibre and sodium have remained low and unchanged over the years. From the data it is also clear that carbohydrate levels are the highest in our chart, this is because carbohydrates are mostly needed per day because they provide energy needed by the body.

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

An analysis of mean levels over the years for the selected nutrients gives us the following table

total

mean

Standard deviation

Energy (kcal)

19790

1799.091

56.82509

Protein

699.4864

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

63.58967

1.302301

Fat

879.9608

79.99644

5.006282

Carbohydrate

2415.803

219.6185

4.795622

Fibre

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

132.9

12.08182

0.306001

Sodium

28.207

2.564273

0.143592

From the above we can construct a mean chart and the following will be the results:

The chart saw that in average higher levels of carbohydrates are consumed, the second high level of consumption is fats and then proteins, lower levels of fibre and sodium are consumed per day and for this reason we can state that in a day more carbohydrates are consumed than nay other nutrient in the body, this can be due to the high levels of carbohydrates in the foods we consume. Also due to the fact that we consume more of carbohydrates because we need carbohydrates because they provide us with energy. From our data table which analysis the

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

standard deviations it is clear that there are greater deviations in the consumption of carbohydrates and fats, this can be attributed to the increased consumption of energy giving foods over the years.

Proteins and meat and meat products:

We now analyse the relationship that exists between protein and the expenditure on meat and meat products: from the findings there is a strong correlation between the expenditure of meat and proteins consumption per day, the correlation coefficient is 0.796, the correlation is positive and for this reason we conclude that as the level of consumption of protein nutrient per day increase then total expenditure per person increases, if we are to assume a regression model where we assume the protein consumption level as the independent level and our expenditure level on meat as our dependent variable then we expect that as the level of protein consumption increase then the expenditure level on meat will increase, we will state our model as follows:

Y = a + bx where Y is the expenditure level and x is the protein nutrient consumption, after estimation the following were the results:

A = -864.52

B = 17.6163

Having our data as stated above we can now state our estimated model as follows:

Y = -864.52 + 17.6163 X

The above model means that if we hold all other factors constant and the level of X whixch stands for protein level per individual then the level of meat expenditure would be -864.52, in

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

the same case if we hold all other factors constant and increase the level of X by one unit then the level of meat consumption will increase by 17.6163 units, for this reason therefore we can conclude by saying that the level of protein consumption will determine the level of expenditure on meat, meat is one of the highest provider of protein and an increase in the level of protein consumed per person will lead to an increase in the level of expenditure on meat.

From the above analysis we assumed that the protein level of an individual is the only determinant of meat expenditure, however there are other factors that determine the level of expenditure of meat which include the price of meat but in our case our objective was to check the relevance of the protein level per individual and the expenditure on meat.

The correlation of determination for our model is 0.63612, the correlation of determination provides the strength of a relationship that exist between two variables, however the correlation of determination of our model means that 63.61% of the variations in meat expenditure are explained by our independent variable which is protein consumption per person.

We also perform the statistical significance of our estimated model and in this case the following are the results:

99%

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

t calcuted t critical

a

-3.0605

2.89646

b

3.9665

2.89646

From the above analysis at 98% test level our estimated parameters are statistically significance:

The autonomous value a

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

Null hypothesis

H0: a = 0

Alternative hypothesis

Ha: a ≠ 0

We reject the null hypothesis that a = 0 and therefore our autonomous value is statistically significant

For our slope in the model b:

Null hypothesis

H0: b = 0

Alternative hypothesis

Ha: b ≠ 0

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Historical Trends in Food Expenditure

We reject the null hypothesis that b=0 and therefore we conclude that our b is statistically significant.

Despite our findings there is still need to re specify the model using more independent variables which have major influence on the expenditure of meat, these variables include price of meat and demand for meat and the supply of meat, however our estimated model can be used to estimate and forecast on the expenditure of meat given individual needs and consumption of protein nutrients.

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