Prophesy and probability:


The following paper highlights prophesies regarding Jesus Christ and calculation of probabilities, the Old Testament contains prophesises that would help people identify the right individual who would be the messiah, this include where he would be born, how he would die, his life an mission. The New Testament on the other hand describes the birth of the messiah, where he was born and his death among others. This paper highlights two probabilities of these outcomes:

Place of birth:

Micah chapter 5 verse 2 states that the messiah would be born in Bethlehem, in the new testament Jesus was born in Bethlehem, according to Peter Stoner (1957)the average population in Bethlehem each year from the time of Micah to present is approximately 7,125 people, and the and the average world population for the period is approximately 2 billion. The probability that an individual will meet the condition that he or she is born in Bethlehem is given by dividing the average population of Bethlehem by the average population of the world as follows:

Therefore the probability of getting an individual who is born in Bethlehem in the world according to Stoner (1957) is:

=7,125 / 2billion

Prophesy and Probability


Which is approximately a probability of P (A) =3.56 X 10 -6

This is the probability that an individual in the world would be born in Bethlehem,


Stoner 1957 also used the book of Zechariah 13:6 which state that the messiah will be betrayed by a friend and that he will be wounded in his hands, Stoner estimates the probability of this outcome as P(B)= 1/1000

Another estimated probability is the prophesy in Zechariah 11:12 that the messiah shall be betrayed by a friend for 30 pieces of silver, the probability that an individual in the world is betrayed by a friend for 30 silver pieces according to Stoner is P(A)=1/ 1000.


Using the three probability values in order to determine the probability of an individual meeting all the above conditions is determined by multiplying the probability value P (A) X P (B) X P(C), this probability value is 1 divided by 2.85 X 106, this is a value that is so low and an individual fulfilling these conditions is almost impossible, therefore science proves that in deed Jesus was and is still the messiah.

Prophesy and Probability


Christian research ministry (2009) prophesy and Jesus, retrieved on 4th February, from http://

Peter Stoner (1957) the odds of prophesies becoming true, retrieved on 4th February, from 0Prophecies.htm