Tobacco Consumption In The United States

Tobacco Consumption in the United States

Abstract:

This paper highlights the varying percentages of tobacco use among the states and by male and female individuals. An analysis of the data show that Kentucky has the largest number of smokers at 28.6% whereas Utah has the lowest number of smokers at 9.8% of the entire population and the other finding is that there are more male than female who smoke.

Introduction:

This paper focuses on the number of individuals who smoke in the US, According to a 2006 report it was estimated that 20.2 % of the US populations smoked, of this 20.2% only 18.5% were female and 22.2% were male, this shows that more male than female smoke, results also show that among the states Utah has the least number of smokers while Kentucky has the largest number of smokers, the following is an analysis of the 2006 data retrieved from US census website.

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Data:

Data was retrieved from the US census website www.census.gov/compendia/statab/tables/09s0197.xls. The data contains the percentage of those who smoked in each state and the percentage of male and female who smoked in each state. The data is appropriate in that it will help in the comparison of the percentage of smokers in each state. This analysis will help in the formulation of policies that aid in reducing the number of smokers and promoting health among the citizens. States with high percentage levels of smokers can adopt policies existing in low percentage states and therefore promote a healthy population.

Data was retrieved from the US census due to availability, another reason why this data was selected was due to completeness of the data, the other reason is that data is accurate and reliable given that the data base is maintained by the state.

The following table summarizes the results of the mean, standard deviation, variance, minimum and maximum values of the data set:

All

Male

Female

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Mean

20.34

22.17

18.64

Standard deviation

3.135208033

3.420517103

3.234985226

Variance

9.829529412

11.69993725

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10.46512941

Minimum

9.8

10.4

9.2

Maximum

28.6

29.1

28.1

Mean values:

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An analysis of the mean percentage value for all the states show that the mean percentage value of all those who smoke in all the states is 20.34%, the mean percentage value for male individuals is 22.17% and18.64% for female individuals. The following chart summarizes the results:

From the above chart it is evident that there are more male smokers than female smokers in all the states.

In July 2006 the US census estimated the population size to amount to 298,362,973, this means that the number of smokers was 20.20% X 298,362,973= 60, 269321; therefore approximately over 60 million individuals were smokers in the year 2006.

Further analysis on those who smoke shows that there are more male smokers than female. the following chart summarizes the results:

From the above chart it is evident that all those who smoke 54.55% are male while only 45.45% are female. This means that given that those who smoked amounted to 60,269321 this means that the number of male individuals who smoked amounted to 54.55% X 60,269321 = 32,874,175 while the number of females amounted to approximately 45.45% X 60,269321 = 27,395,145, the following table summarizes the results:

percent

number

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Male

54.55%

32,874,174

Female

45.45%

27,395,145

Minimum and maximum percentage values:

An analysis of minimum and maximum values show that Kentucky has the highest percentage of those who smoke while Utah has the least value, the following table summarizes the results:

From the above chart it is evident that the percentage of those who smoke in Kentucky is 28.6% while in Utah which is the least value is 9.8%.

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Tobacco Consumption in the United States

Given the estimates of the population for all the states it is evident that Kentucky population was estimated at 4,199,440 while Utah population was estimated at 2,585,155, the following table summarizes the number of smokers in each state:

population

percentage smokers

number

Kentucky

4,199,440

28.6

120,103,984.00

Utah

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2,585,155

9.8

25,334,519.00

From the above table it is evident that in 2006 approximately 120 million individuals were smokers while only 25 million in Utah were smokers.

Summary:

From the above analysis it is evident that the number of smokers in the US as at 2006 was approximately 60 million, it is also evident that the Kentucky had the highest level of smokers and Utah had the least number of smokers. Further analysis show that there are more male smokers than female smokers. Further research should be aimed at determine the mortality rate as a result of tobacco use and whether Kentucky has a higher mortality rate than Utah and also to determine the historical trend of the percentages in each state to determine whether there is a decrease in the number of smokers or an increase in the level of tobacco use or a decrease.

Part 2:

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Tobacco Consumption in the United States

Abstract:

Analysis of the data show that there are more male than female who smoke whereby the hypothesis that male smokers have a higher percentage than female smokers is accepted using SPSS. Another finding is that the probability that a quarter of the US population smokes is 43.19% and the probability that only an eighth of population smokes is 49.39%.

Introduction:

This section focuses on hypothesis testing and determination of probabilities, the hypothesis to test is whether there are more male smokers than female smokers. It is expected that the results of the hypothesis will be that at 95% level of test we accept the hypothesis that there are more male smokers than female smokers.

Hypothesis:

There are more male smokers than female smokers:

Null hypothesis:

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H0:M=F

Where M is the mean for male and F mean for female

Alternative hypothesis:

Ha: M > F

From our data the mean percentage level of male smokers is 22.80with a variance value of 10.53and for female the mean percentage value is 18.45 and the variance value is 13.30.

Z statistics:

For two samples the Z statistics value is determined using the formula:

Z = (x1 – x2) / (σ12/n1 + σ22/n2)½

In our case

X 1= 22.80

X2 =18.45

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n1 = n2 = 20

σ12 =10.53

σ22=13.30

x1-x2=4.352380952

σ12/n1 =0.526995238

σ22/n2 =0.665428571

σ12/n1 + σ22/n2=1.19242381

(σ12/n1 + σ22/n2)½=1.091981598

(x1 – x2) / (σ12/n1 + σ22/n2)½=3.985764011

Therefore the Z statistics value = 3.985764011

Z critical value at 95% level of test = 2.09302

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Decision:

From the above it is evident that the Z critical value = 2.09 and the Z statistics value = 3.98, given that the Z statistics value is greater than the Z critical value we reject the null hypothesis, the rejected null hypothesis states that H0: M = F and therefore by rejecting this hypothesis we accept the alternative hypothesis that M > F.

For this reason therefore we can conclude that at the 95% level of test and using a sample of 20 states we have accepted the hypothesis that the percentage of male smokers is greater that the percentage of female smokers.

The SPSS output also provides the following results where gender 1 refers to male and gender value 0 refers to female

Independent Samples Test

Levene’s  Test for Equality of Variances

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t-test  for Equality of Means

F

Sig.

t

df

Sig.  (2-tailed)

Mean  Difference

Std.  Error Difference

95%  Confidence Interval of the Difference

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Lower

Upper

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Equal variances not assumed

4.084

39.468

.000

4.35238

1.06566

2.19769

6.50707

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From the above output it is evident that at 95% level of test the T statistics value = 4.084 and given that the critical value is lower than this value we reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative hypothesis.

Probability:

This section tends to find out the probabilities of different outcomes when a random selection is undertaken, this sections utilizes the Z table to determine this probability. We first determine the probability that the percentage of smokers in the United States is greater than a quarter of the population, the Z score is determined as follows:

Z score = P – M/ SD

Where P is the value, M is the mean and SD is the standard deviation

The following values are provided:

Mean =20.34

Standard deviation=3.14

P=25

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Z score = (25 – 20.34)/ 3.14

Z score = 1.487846

From the Z table we determine the probability value, from the table the probability value for 1.49 is equal to 0.4319, this means that the probability that a quarter of the US population smokes is 43.19%

It is also important to determine the probability that only an eighth of the US population smokes, given that

Z score = P – M/ SD

Mean  =20.34

Standard deviation=3.14

P = 12.5

Z score = (12.5 – 20.34)/ 3.14

Z score = 2.499131

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From the Z table we determine the probability value, from the table the probability value for 2.5 is equal to 0.4938, this means that the probability that an eighth of the US population smokes is 49.38%.

Summary:

It is evident that more male than female smoke, it is also evident that some states have more smokers than others whereby Kentucky has the highest number of smokers while Utah has the lowest number of smokers. This study will help in formulation of policies to discourage smoking. This can be done by adopting policies that have already been formulated by states with low numbers of smokers. Further studies should aim at finding out the most effective way of discouraging smoking and also factors that have led to differences in the number of smokers in these states.

References:

Donald Stuart (1994) Statistics: An introduction. New  Jersey: Prentice Hall press.

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October, < http://www.census.gov/popest/states/NST-ann-est.html >

US Census (2006) US smoking by state, retrieved on 22nd October, from <www.census.gov/compendia/statab/tables/09s0197.xls>

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