Module Mih

MODULE 2 MIH512:

Part 1:

1. Demographic data:

US:

US demographic data is available online from a number of websites, the official census website is http://www.census.gov/ , this website provides actual census data and also provides estimates of the population over the years, this website is more detailed in that data concerning other characteristics of the population such as different regions population, death rates, population by age and growth rates. The website is easy to use and data can be filtered by selecting appropriate data required.

The other website that US population data can be retrieved is the UN website available at http:/ /www.un.org/popin/data.html

, this is an international organization data base that provides population information for almost all the countries, the website is easy to use although it only contains limited information whereby it does not contain information such as population size in different states in the US. It is however a reliable data base and population estimates are provided.

The world bank website available at http://web.worldbank.org/ is also another source of US population data, this organization however only provides population information for the year 2008 and therefore does not provide accurate and reliable information, this organization however concentrates on providing information regarding per capita income, gross domestic production, exports and imports of countries. It provides population information that can be used in analyzing population in the US.

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Germany:

Germany population data is availed at the population statistics website http://www.populstat.inf o/Europe/germanyg.htm

, this site provides estimates of the population size and other population characteristics, the website provides a summary of the population characteristics and links that help in retrieving population data for all the countries in the world,

Other websites where Germany population data can be retrieved are http://www.unicef.org/info bycountry/germany_statistics.html

and

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/gm.html

, these are organization websites that provide data for various countries, Unique provides information regarding population composition while the CIA website only provides information regarding population size in a certain year, birth, death and HIV prevalence rates only, these rates are provided as percentages and therefore actual values are unavailable.

2. Comparing search engines:

Comparing the US census website and the CIA website when searching for China population information it is evident that the US census data website is more user friendly than the CIA website, information on population size is available at the US census website while the CIA website only provides US population size as estimated in 2009. It is also possible to retrieve a population Pyramid using the US Census website which is impossible when using the CIA website.

3. Limitations:

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There are limitations when using CIA data base, this is because this website provides summaries and therefore does not provide detailed information regarding a population, compared to the US census website the CIA fact book website would not be a reliable source of population data and data retrieved from US census website would be more accurate and easy to download or retrieve to a worksheet.

References:

World Bank (2009) Population statistics, retrieved on 13th February, available at http://web.wor ldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/DATASTATISTICS/0,,contentMDK:20535285~menuPK:1192 694~pagePK:64133150~piPK:64133175~theSitePK:239419,00.html

Population statistics (2009) Germany population statistics, retrieved on 13th February, available

at http://www.popul stat.info/Europe/germanyg.htm

,

UNICEF (2010) Germany population statistics, retrieved on 13th February, available at http://w ww.unicef.org/infobycountry/germany_statistics.html

CIA (2009) Germany fact book, retrieved on 13th February, available at https://www.cia.gov/libr ary/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/gm.html

US Census (2010) Population Data access, retrieved on 13th February, available at http://www

.census.gov/

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Part 2:

1. Enumeration or registration:

Population data in Germany is obtained through enumeration (DeStatis, 2010), on the hand China uses both enumeration and registration to determine the population size; this is because China is concerned with the population size and has established laws to control birth rates. (Bureau of Statistics China, 2010)

2. Recent census:

According to DeStatis (2010) the recent census in Germany was in the year 2004, and data was collected from a sample given that the country no longer undertakes census aimed at counting all individuals in the country. China on the hand its sample census in 2004, however the latest census aimed at including all the individuals was undertaken in the year 2000. (Bureau of Statistics China, 2010)

3. Collection of data:

Germany population data was first collected in the year 1895(DeStatis, 2010), however this method faced strong resistance and the last census that included every individual was undertaken in 1987(DeStatis, 2010), on the other hand China population was first collected in 1742 and the reason for this collection was for election and tax purposes.

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4. Frequency of collection:

According to the Bureau of Statistics China (2010) in the past few years China has undertaken three data collection census, in 2000, in 2004 and in 2008, this indicates that the country collects population data after 4 years. Germany on the other hand collects data after 5 years using a sample of the population after full census collection method was abolished in 1987. (DeStatis, 2010)

5. Data collection:

Data in Germany and China is collected by census takers, however recent advancement in technology may change this process in future, for example the US now collects population data using the internet.

6. Periodic or continuous:

In both Germany and China data collection is periodic whereby Chain collects data after 4 years while Germany collects data after 5 years. (DeStatis, 2010),

7. Sampling:

In both China and Germany sampling is undertaken when collecting data, a portion of the population is selected and data collected in both countries.

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8. Sampling errors:

Given that both countries use samples to collect data then the sample values will deviate from the population values, therefore countries incorporate a sampling error in their estimations.

9. Problems:

Germany census have faced problems in the past whereby individuals feel that questions asked are personal, therefore this is one of the major problem with the Germany census. (DeStatis, 2010), China however has not reported any problems in the past.

References:

DeStatis (2010) Bureau of Statistics Germany, retrieved on 14th February, from http://www.dest atis.de/jetspeed/portal/cms/Sites/destatis/Internet/EN/Navigation/Census/Census.psml

Bureau of Statistics China (2010) Bureau of Statistics China, retrieved on 14th February, from h ttp://www.stats.gov.cn/english/

MODULE 3

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PART 1:

1. Population growth:

China:

Population data for China was retrieved from http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/country.php ; the following chart summarizes the data

From the chart the demographic transition theory explains the growth rate given that there was a relatively low growth rate in 1950 to 1970, high growth rate in the period 1970 to 2000 and then a decline in population growth in 2000 to 2035.

Germany:

Germany population data was retrieved from http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/country.php , the following chart summarizes the data

From the above chart the growth rate has remained relatively low and in recent year’s negative, the Social capillarity theory by Dumont explains this form of growth whereby people prefer to rise up the social scale by having few or no children at all.

2. Describe the growth rate.

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Germany population growth has remained relatively low and the value is expected to be negative in the year 2011 to 2050, china population on the other hand is expected to remain high in the next few years and then decline in the year 2015 to 2050.

3. Depopulation:

There are concerns of depopulation in Germany whereas there are concerns of population exceeding resources in China.

4. When population is likely to double:

Germany:

The rule of 69 states that for a population to double given growth rate is x then the number of years it will take to double will be 69/x, current growth rate for Germany is approximately

0.012%, therefore the number of years is 69/0.012= 5750, therefore assuming population growth remains constant it will take 5750 years for the population to double, this will be year 7760.

China:

current growth population rate in China is approximately 0.49%, therefore the number of years is 69/0.49= 140, therefore assuming population growth remains constant it will take 140 years for the population to double, this will be year 2150.

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References:

February, available at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/country.php

February, available at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/country.php

MODULE 4

PART 1

1.  Incidence rate of aids per 100,000 populations Hispanic

Incidence rate = new cases of a disease/ number of people exposed to this risks

New cases of AIDS = 95

Number exposed to risks =452,780-850 = 451930

Incidence rate = 100,000 X 95/451930 = 21.02095

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Incidence rate is 21.02 per 100,000 populations.

2.  Prevalence rate of Aids per 100,000 populations of Hispanics:

Prevalence rate = no. having a particular diseases (Total cases minus deaths plus new cases

)/ number of people at risk of contracting diseases

Total cases minus deaths plus new cases

Number having the disease = 850

Number of people at risk = 451930

Prevalence rate = (850 – 595+ 95)/ 451930

Prevalence rate = 77.44562per 100000 of the population

3. Top ten cause of death in one group but not in one or both

Suicide as a cause of death is one of the top ten cause of death among the white non Hispanic and this cause of death is not a top ten cause of death in other groups.

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4. Top ten causes of death:

Seven top ten causes of death among the three groups are similarly, this include Diseases of heart, Malignant neoplasm, Accidents and adverse effects, HIV, Cerebro vascular disease, Diabetes mellitus and Pneumonia and influenza, this means that there are more similarities than differences in the major causes of death among the groups.

5. Neonatal mortality risks highest (Hispanic):

Puerto Ricans is a Hispanic subgroup and has the highest neo natal mortality risk of 7.9 per 1000 live births.

6. Post- neonatal mortality risks highest:

Post neonatal mortality is high among the black subgroup with a post neonatal mortality value of 6.3 per 1000 live births.

PART 2

1. Morbidity rate:

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Mortality rate in China:

Mortality

Rate is determined using the crude death rate; death rate is determined by dividing the number of deaths in a year by the average population size in that year, china crude death rate according to CIA fact book was estimated at 7.06 per 1000 in 2009.

Mortality rate in Germany:

Germany crude death rate was 10.9 per 1000 in 2009 according to the CIA fact book and this indicates that Germany has a higher crude death rate than China.

2. Fertility:

Fertility rate in China:

Fertility in a country is determined by the crude birth rate, according to the CIA fact book crude birth rates in China was estimated at 14 per 1000 in 2009.

Fertility rate in Germany:

Germany crude birth rates according to the CIA fact book was 8.18 per 1000 in 2009, this indicates that Germany has a lower crude birth rate compared to China.

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3. Disability

Disability in China:

According to the World Bank China disability prevalence in 1987 was approximately 5.4 individuals per 100

Disability in Germany:

Data from World Bank indicates that the disability in Germany was 8.4 individuals per 100, and this indicates that there is a high possibility that Germany has higher disability prevalence in Germany than in China

4. Morbidity:

Incidence or prevalence rates are indicators of morbidity; the following are the 2009 HIV prevalence rate in the two countries:

Morbidity in China:

HIV prevalence rate in China in the year 2007 according to CIA fact book was estimated at

0.1%, a total of 700,000 people were living with HIV in 2007 and there were 39,000 HIV deaths in the same year.

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Morbidity in Germany:

HIV prevalence rate in 2007 according to CIA fact book was estimated at 0.1%, a total of 53,000 people were living with HIV in 2007 and there were less than 500 HIV deaths in the same year. This indicates that there were more people living with HIV in China and yet a large number of them died in 2007, however prevalence rate was approximately equal in both countries in 2007.

References:

CIA (2009) China, retrieved on 14th February, available at https://www.cia.gov/library/publicatio ns/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html

CIA (2009) Germany, retrieved on 14th February, available at https://www.cia.gov/library/public ations/the-world-factbook/geos/gm.html

Word Bank (2009) Measuring disability prevalence, retrieved on 14th February, from www.siter esources.worldbank.org/DISABILITY/Resources/Data.pdf

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MODULE 5

PART 1:

1. Mexico (2050) population pyramid:

. The following is the population pyramid for Mexico for the year 2050, image was retrieved from http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/country.php

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The shape of the pyramid is jagged meaning that there are more individuals who are younger and less individuals with age above 70 years, however the female population is contracting given that the number with less than 25 years is declining.

b. Age groups with the greatest proportion and smallest proportion

From data retrieved from http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/country.php age group 15 to 19 years has the greatest proportion of 6.37%, given that this is an approximation of 2050 population size then the population will be born in 2050-15 = 2035, 2050 – 19 = 2031, therefore the population will be born in the year 2031 to 2035.

Data analysis indicate that those aged over 100 years has the smallest population of 0.11%, these individuals will be born in 2050 – 100 = 1950, meaning that these individuals were born in 1950.

C. the pyramid is shrinking on female side, and this means that the female population is getting older, the male side is expanding meaning that the female population is getting younger, however the overall pyramid indicates that the population is shrinking and therefore the entire population is getting older.

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2.  Differences in the shape of pyramid:

The shape of a population pyramid is affected by the birth rates, death rates and life expectancy, when birth rates are higher than death rates then there will be a higher proportion of younger individuals, also when life expectancy is relatively high then there will be more individuals in the older age groups.

3. Population growth:

In 2050 birth rates in Mexico from the pyramid will be lower than birth rates; therefore the population growth rate will be negative.

4.  Demographic transition stages:

The following is a description of the demographic stages:

Stage 1

The first stage is characterized by high birth and high death rates, and this means that the population growth remains relatively low.

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Stage 2

The second stage is characterized by a decline in death rates, however birth rates remain relatively high, and this means that the population growth increases.

Stage 3

Stage three is characterized by a decline in birth rates, death rates remain relatively constant and this means that the population growth starts to decline.

Stage 4

Stage four is characterized by birth rates lower than death rate, this mean that the growth in population is negative and therefore population size declines.

From the 2050 population pyramid for Mexico, in this year the country will be in the fourth stage of demographic transition, this is because birth rates will be lower than death rates.

PART 2:

1. 5-20 years earlier and 5-20 years later:

The two countries are China and Germany; the following are the population pyramids five years ago and 30 years from now:

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China:

2000

The 2000 population pyramid was retrieved from

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/country.php

2030

The 2030 population pyramid was retrieved from

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/country.php

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From the above two charts it is evident that the population chart will change, the 2000 chart indicates high birth rates where by 44 million male and 40 million individuals were aged 0 to 5 years, in 2030 only 35 million male and 30 million individuals will be aged 0 to 5 years, this indicates a decline in birth rates, population above 80 years will also change, a greater proportion will be older in 2030 compared to 2000.

Germany:

2030

The 2030 population pyramid was retrieved from

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/country.php

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2000:

The 2000 population pyramid was retrieved from

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/country.php

From the above chart it is evident that the proportion of individuals aged below 5 years will decline, also evident is that there will be a greater proportion of individuals aged above 85 years, this means that the population will decline in 2030.

These changes analyzed above for China and Germany are as a result of changes in birth and death rates, in both the birth rates will decline and a larger proportion of the population will be aged above 85 years and only a small proportion aged below 5 years.

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References:

February, available at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/country.php

February, available at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/country.php

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MODULE 6

Reflection:

The demographic and health course has increased my understanding of various concepts used in describing the characteristics of a population, this include a greater understanding of birth rates, population growth, death rate, prevalence rate and their importance in studying population. I have also gained knowledge on the demographic transition theory that describes the stages of population growth.

I would have improved my performance if more time was allowed to cover the topics, this would have allowed me to perform more tasks that would have allowed me to gain more knowledge in this course and also perfect on what I already know, however I gained knowledge, skills and ability to undertake population data analysis.

I achieved all the course objectives and also gained the ability to analyze the population of any country and explain meaning of rates provided such as birth rates and death rates, theories of population growth are also useful in the prediction of future population changes whereby countries experience changes in growth rates that shape the population size over the years.

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