Running head: ECONOMICS
Governor of the Federal Reserve board
The current chairman of the Federal Reserve board is Dr. Ben S. Bernanke who has retained the position since, February 1, 2006. He also heads Federal Open Market Committee as the chairman to. He was appointed as a board member on a full term which runs for 14 years, and his Chairmanship role runs up to January 31, 2010.
The board has seven members appointed by the president after which they have to be confirmed by the senate. They are normally appointed for a term of fourteen years with a term beginning after two running years.
The person to head the Board that is the chairman is a chosen among the members and handed a four year term.
The vice chairman of the Board is Donald L. Kohn who became part of the board on August 5, 2002 under the normal term of fourteen years thus his ends on January 2016. He was appointed as the vice chairman in the year 2006 and handed a four year term under the position.
Other members of t he board.
Kevin M. Warsh.
Kevin was appointed as a board member on February 24, 2006, and given a norm al contract of fourteen years thus his term runs up to January 31, 2018.
Elizabeth A. Duke
Elizabeth assumed his role as a board member in the year 2008 where she was to fill an unexpired term which was to run until January 2012.
Daniel K. Tarullo.
Daniel became a board member on January this year to fill unexpired term which h was to run till January 31, 2022.
Examination of biographies.
Chairman Dr Ben S. Bernanke
He did his BA in Economics (summa Cum laude) at Harvard University, later on in 1979 he proceeded to Massachusetts Institute of Technology where he did his PhD again in Economics
Bernanke has in the past worked in the President’s Council of Economic Advisers as the chairman, other job experiences result from his earlier service as a board member, as a Professor of Economics at Princeton University and membership of bodies like the Academic Advisory Panel.
Vice chairman-Donald L Kohn
He did his BA in economics at College of Wooster in 1964, proceeded to pursue his PhD in economics AT University of Michigan in the year 1971.
Donald has vast experience from working in the Federal Reserve System in different capacities beginning in the Research and Statistics centre in the year 1983. Prior to that he had worked in the Federal Reserve Bank as a financial Economist.
Kevin M. Warsh
He did an A.B in Public policy specializing in economics at Stanford University and later on proceeded to Harvard Law School where he pursued Law economics and regulatory policy. Other curricular qualifications include Market economics studied at Harvard Business School and Capital markets at MIT Sloan School of Management.
Prior to his appointment he served in the President for Economic Policy as special assistant and in the National Economic Council as executive secretary.
Elizabeth A. Duke
She did a bachelors degree in Banking at University of North Carolina and later on proceeded to do an MBA in the same field at Old Dominion University.
Ms. Duke has served inn the banking industry as a senior executive at TowneBank and Wachovia bank, besides this she has been a board member of American Bankers Association and Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
Daniel K. Tarullo
He did his AB at George Town University and later pursued his MA at Duke University, in the year 1974 he received his JD (summa cum laude) from Michigan Law School.
In the past he had worked in the President’s Council of Economic Advisers and had resumed numerous roles in the Federal Reserve System.
Steepness of the curve
This is an indicator of recessions in future because of several reasons among them:-
The yield curve is affected by current monetary policies; an increase in the lesser rates has the consequences of flattening the curve which consequently indicates a decline in growth for the near future.
Besides this indication other important aspects of the yield curve that may be used to indicate future recessions are interest rates and inflation expectations in the future.
Prediction of future recessions.
The yield curve is considered the best indicator for future indications as compared to other indicators that may be used in the market such as the stock prices.
The yield curve indicates the percentage or likelihood of a recession in the near or distant quarters. What determines this probability is the shape of the yield curve; when the yield curve is steep and upright it indicates a very high percentage which is an indication of a low probability of a recession in the near future however as the curve tapers it shows a higher probability of a recession occurring in the near future. Thus when we have an inverted yield curve this illustrates a negative percentage which consequently indicates a very strong probability of having a recession in the future.(Choudhry 2004).
Current Yield curve
The current yield curve indication s as released by the treasury has measure of 3% which is a low curve this is an indicator of a reasonable chance of a recession in the future, though it may not be an indicator of a recent one as the more recent indications are used to forecast trends in the further quarters, thus indications of current future may only be indicated by yield curve readings of several years back.
Choudhry, M (2004).Analyzing and Interpreting the Yield Curve. Wiley Publishers.
Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rates http://www.ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-manag ement/interest-rate/yield.shtml
Mishkin F. (1996). The Yield Curve as a Predictor
Of U.S.Recessions http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci2-7.pdf
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